Russia's Oil Exports Hit Hardest Since 2024: What's Really Going On?
The global energy landscape is shifting dramatically, and Russia's seaborne oil exports are feeling the heat. In early November, Russia's crude shipments plummeted, marking the steepest weekly drop since January 2024, according to a Bloomberg report on November 4. But what's driving this sudden decline? It's all tied to the U.S.'s bold move on October 22 to slap blocking sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's oil giants. These sanctions freeze their U.S.-based assets and threaten penalties for foreign companies daring to trade with them. And this is the part most people miss: the ripple effects are far-reaching, with tankers now doubling as floating storage facilities as oil remains undelivered.
Here’s where it gets controversial: While the sanctions aim to pressure Russia, they’ve also sent shockwaves through global markets. The four-week average volume of oil from Russian ports dropped to 3.58 million barrels per day by November 2—a staggering 190,000 barrels less than late October. During the week ending November 2, just 26 tankers loaded 21.11 million barrels, down from 34 vessels carrying 26.41 million barrels the previous week. Daily exports plunged to 3.02 million barrels, a 20% nosedive from the prior week’s 3.77 million. Since early September, after the U.S. hiked tariffs on India, the amount of Russian oil stored at sea has surged by 8%, topping 380 million barrels—enough to cover over 100 days of exports.
But here's where it gets even more complicated: Major buyers like India, China, and Turkey—accounting for a whopping 95% of Russia's crude exports—have hit pause or scaled back imports, wary of compliance risks. India’s Reliance Industries, for instance, has vowed to comply with U.S. sanctions and shift to Middle Eastern, U.S., and Brazilian crude. Meanwhile, Indian Oil Corp, the nation’s top refiner, has halted Russian orders post-sanctions. Smaller Russian suppliers not yet sanctioned are seeing some demand, but many buyers are diversifying their sources.
The bigger picture? These sanctions coincide with Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, further squeezing output and exports. The result? Western oil giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies are reaping the rewards. Reuters reports their refining profits soared 61% in the third quarter, boosting overall earnings by 20%.
Now, let’s talk Europe: The EU is grappling with its own dilemma. In the coming weeks, it must decide whether to phase out remaining Russian fossil fuel imports by early 2027 or extend the deadline. Either way, it’s a tough road ahead. Overcoming resistance from member states and finding replacements for the billions in Russian oil and gas flowing monthly won’t be easy. Since the conflict began, the EU has made strides in reducing its reliance on Russian energy, but the final stretch promises to be the most challenging.
Here’s the burning question: Are these sanctions a necessary step toward holding Russia accountable, or do they risk destabilizing global energy markets further? What’s your take? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a conversation!
